“Only the 2019 summit, the venue, and the players will be the same, but the agenda and character will be completely different.”
A high-ranking government official said in a telephone interview with the Dong-A Ilbo on June 6 regarding the North Korea-Russia summit, which is likely to be held on May 12. The venue is Russia, and the player is North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but what the two leaders will discuss will be completely different from then, when they meet again in four years and five months since April 2019.
The official said, “No specific trends in the talks have been identified,” but added, “If the two leaders meet, weapons, food, and energy will be the key agenda.” Russia, which desperately needs shells and other support due to the prolonged war in Ukraine, and North Korea, which needs cutting-edge technology for satellites and nuclear submarines, are likely to be on the agenda as well as food and energy exports to North Korea.
Discuss the importance of food and energy exports to North Korea.
Vladivostok, Russia, April 2019. Kim, who headed here shortly after the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi, met with President Putin and asked for a mediating role in the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea. In response, President Putin said, “The six-party system for North Korea’s nuclear program should be in operation,” adding that six-party talks are needed to ensure the safety of the multilateral system against North Korea.
At the 2019 meeting between Chairman Kim and President Putin for the first time, the key agenda was denuclearization or security guarantees for North Korea, but the agenda for the second summit, which is expected to be held on the 12th, is expected to be very different. A South Korean government official said, “At that time, Kim Jong-un, who was slapped by the U.S., went to Putin, and there was nothing North Korea could actually give Russia,” and stressed, “Russia and Putin’s status was very different from now that they are internationally isolated.”
In fact, the South Korean government believes that the nature of dialogue between the two leaders will be completely different from that of the time, as North Korea currently has a large number of conventional weapons such as ammunition, cannons, and rockets, which are desperately needed by Russia in the Ukraine war. An official said, “Kim Jong-un’s requirements will increase and become clear,” adding, “There is a sufficient possibility of a bold technology transfer request.” Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup also attended a parliamentary interpellation on the 6th and said, “I think there is a possibility of a (North Korea-Russia summit),” adding, “North Korea can receive technical help for developing new weapons, and Russia can consider providing ammunition and military supplies.”
Food and energy exports to North Korea are also expected to be a major agenda item. For North Korea, which is suffering from severe food shortages, such as a series of starvation, it is highly likely that it will demand Russia to expand its exports of flour. Another official said, “As sanctions against Russia have intensified since the Ukrainian war, food and energy are oversupplied in Russia,” adding, “It will not be burdensome to provide.
Observation Diagram on the Expansion of Overseas Dispatch of Workers in North Korea
Some in the government predict that the expansion of the dispatch of North Korean workers to Russia will be heavily discussed at the North Korea-Russia summit. North Korea recently officially lifted the border blockade caused by the novel coronavirus infection disease. As a result, it is expected that overseas workers will be dispatched in earnest to earn foreign currency. Russia is understaffed due to the war in Ukraine. As the interests of the two countries coincide, there is a high possibility of discussing the dispatch of workers. Earlier, during the 2019 summit, President Putin expressed a lukewarm stance on the implementation of U.N. Sanctions on North Korea Resolution 2397, which requires the repatriation of North Korean workers abroad.
Cybersecurity cooperation between North Korea and Russia is also one of the agendas that the South Korean and U.S. authorities are closely watching. Earlier in March, the Joe Biden administration defined North Korea, China, and Russia as cyber threats in the National Cyber Security Strategy (NCS). It is known that North Korea has stolen about 4 trillion won worth of virtual currency alone through hacking over the past five years. A government source said, “We are paying attention as the two countries may agree to increase cyber information exchange and dispatch North Korean IT personnel to Russia in the wake of the summit.”
https://www.donga.com/news/Politics/article/all/20230907/121057883/1